The short deviation of the hottest natural rubber

2022-07-30
  • Detail

The short-term deviation of Tianjiao market does not change the medium-term rise

1 Comparison of futures price and index

closing price

compared with that of last week

compared with that of last week%

ru0805 (the stretching rate of RMB is 110%, 30 times larger than that of aramid)

23805

-330

-1.37%

tocom807 (yen/kg)

305.3

+7.70

+2.59%

comparison chart of Shanghai Rubber index and Japan rubber index. (source: North futures)

2 Trend chart of spot price

land reclamation bidding. (source: Northern futures)

uss3 transaction price trend chart. (source: North futures)

3 Inventory and exchange rate

Tianjiao inventory trend chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange. (source: Northern futures)

Japan inventory trend chart. (source: Northern futures)

trend chart of RMB central parity rate. (source: North futures)

4 Comments

different from Japanese rubber trying to hit the previous high, the resumption trading has fallen continuously for three trading days, and the domestic and foreign rubber markets have gone out of the diametrically opposite trend. The fundamental reason lies in the different fundamentals faced by the domestic and foreign rubber markets. The international production areas began to speculate on the theme of cutting off since before the festival. During the domestic Festival, the international spot price was close to the high point in the early stage. The large increase of funds in Japanese glue and the support of the yen exchange rate continued to push the Japanese glue higher. Compared with Japanese rubber, the domestic high inventory has not led to tight supply, the surrounding metal market has not been completely stable, and the technical indicators are in urgent need of repair. In this case, the long funds have no choice but to leave the market, resulting in the continuous decline of futures prices since the high opening after the festival. Even so, with the international commodity market as a whole in a bull market and global economic inflation expectations, periodic deviations cannot change the medium-term rise of the rubber market

years ago, the high current prices in domestic and international production areas led to the shortage of goods in most factories. In addition, the snow disaster in China also hindered transportation to a certain extent. After the festival, factories will carry out procurement activities of different scales. At present, domestic and international production areas are all located and the load can no longer rise in the stop tapping period, so the market supply is tight. Once the procurement activities are fully carried out, fluoroplastics are paraffinic polymers in which some or all hydrogen is replaced by fluorine, the demand from the spot market will become the main driving force for the price rise

although the Japanese glue was blocked around 310 yen, the fund still held a large amount of net excess, and the futures price maintained a high consolidation trend above 300 yen, which also had the momentum to hit the previous high again. Shanghai rubber used renewable soybean oil to improve automobile rubber parts after the long funds left the market, but the trading volume was enlarged, indicating that the long and short competition was still continuing, and the weekly rally was still maintained. Once the conditions were matched, the rally would start again. In terms of operation, the short-term and long-term thinking will be maintained for the time being, and it will continue to focus on buying back, waiting for the completion of adjustment

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