The shortage of the hottest bauxite is still the p

2022-07-23
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Bauxite is still in short supply, alumina production is reduced and the supporting price is

bauxite: the shortage of domestic ores has not been improved, and the incremental matching of imported ores is not as expected. Domestically, the environmental protection inspectors have made great progress in the plastic extruder Market in China and evacuated from the northern region. The ore mining is expected to increase in the future, but there is no obvious improvement at present. The operating rate of mines in Shanxi remains low, and the inventory of downstream alumina enterprises is tight. With the centralized production of new production capacity, the demand for domestic ores continues to rise. Some alumina enterprises have begun to purchase a large number of low-grade ores to meet their urgent needs; The basic situation in Henan is similar to that in Shanxi, and the bauxite price is relatively stable this week; Guizhou is expected to receive a "look back" inspection of environmental protection, but it has not been affected yet; Guangxi has stable supply and demand. According to Aladdin's data, the aluminum content in Shanxi this week was 58%-60%, and the aluminum silicon ratio was 4 The mainstream bauxite price of 0 was raised to 370- 520 yuan/ton, and the bare price reached the factory, and some enterprises reached as high as yuan/ton; The mainstream price of bauxite of this grade in Henan keeps the bare price of yuan/ton to the factory; The aluminum content in Guizhou is 60%, and the aluminum silicon ratio is 5 The mainstream bauxite price of 0 will keep the bare price of yuan/ton to the factory. In terms of import, the price of imported bauxite was basically stable this week. It was reported that the price of Indonesian bauxite would rise due to the increase of sea freight and China's import demand; However, at the same time, the incremental matching of purchased imported ores is not as expected, and the applicability of imported ores remains to be explored. Internationally, affected by the export ban, the Malaysian bauxite export market is still calm; At present, it is reported that Sierra Leone holdings plans to export about 650000 tons of bauxite to China next year. We believe that the high price of bauxite will be under pressure in the short term due to the fall of alumina price. However, due to the limited improvement of domestic ore supply under the rotation supervision of the environmental protection supervision team, the production enthusiasm of downstream alumina plants will not be reduced. In the future, there will still be a shortage of domestic ore, and the price will remain high

alumina: the price continues to fall, and the production reduction is gradually made public. On the domestic side, the spot trading volume in the alumina market this week was small, mainly because the alumina factories were reluctant to sell when the alumina price continued to fall. At the same time, the traders were less willing to take goods due to lack of confidence in the future market. After the low transaction price of 3040 yuan/ton of alumina, the market was calm temporarily. Since then, more low price rumors have emerged, but it is difficult to confirm. On the supply side, new production capacity has been put into operation, and new products will flow into the market in the late part of this month; Recently, Jiaokou Xinfa and Jinjiang Group released the news of passive production reduction due to ore shortage, which is expected to have a short-term impact on the total production capacity of more than 2.5 million tons. On the demand side, due to the long-term low aluminum price and high cost, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises have taken the initiative to reduce production this month, and the possibility of quantitative reduction has increased. In terms of export, there is no order this month. Internationally, the FOB benchmark price of alumina in Australia has dropped to USD 507/ton. We believe that although many short-term negative factors put pressure on the alumina price, the high cost and the disclosure of production reduction progress by major alumina enterprises are expected to provide support for the future rebound of alumina price

prebaked anode: the mainstream price remains stable and the cost rises slightly. Domestically, the mainstream transaction price of pre baked anode remained stable this week. According to wind data, the market price including tax of prebaked anode in East China, central China, southwest and Northwest China this week maintained 3675 yuan/ton, 3660 yuan/ton, 4000 yuan/ton and 4100 yuan/ton respectively. In terms of policies, the air pollution prevention and control policies for the heating season in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta have been released. The main production areas in Shandong, Henan and Hebei can not limit production if they meet the ultra-low emission standards, but they must follow the emergency plan for heavily polluted weather. It is reported that some enterprises in Henan have passed the ultra-low acceptance, and the stepped production restriction in Hebei. For Jinan assaying, the ranking fell due to the revision of the station some time ago. In September, the total output of pre baked anode in China was 1.5605 million tons, an increase of 1.09% month on month. In terms of demand, the downstream enterprises continue to stock up, but the aluminum plant is more likely to reduce production due to losses, and the progress of new investment and production resumption is slow, which is bad for anode consumption. In terms of cost, the price of petroleum coke and coal tar pitch increased slightly this week, and the cost pressure increased. We believe that in the short term, the positive support for the market price of prebaked anode is limited, and it is expected to remain stable

electrolytic aluminum: supply increases and decreases, and aluminum price fluctuates at a low level. On the domestic side, the spot aluminum market price this week fluctuated at a low level due to the impact of overseas news, and the diamond Rockwell indenter and 1.5875mm diameter cemented carbide ball indenter went down as a whole. The weekly average spot price of the Yangtze River fell 156 yuan/ton, and the weekly average spot price of the southern reserve fell 182 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week due to the reduction of production in some areas, a small amount of replenishment by downstream enterprises at low prices, and the impact of transportation distance and time. According to the data disclosed by Baichuan, as of October 18, the inventory of aluminum ingots in 12 places was 1503800 tons, a decrease of 17700 tons compared with October 11. In terms of supply, the production capacity of newly put into operation projects has been gradually released in the near future. A small number of enterprises have reduced their production due to non-compliance with environmental protection and losses. At present, the scale of production reduction is about 300000 tons. It is expected that the short-term domestic supply will increase periodically. In terms of demand, the data of aluminum downstream real estate and automobile industry are poor, and the demand of enterprises shrinks. In terms of policy and international, there is no clear benefit at present, and the aluminum market is gradually returning to fundamentals. We believe that in the short term, under the multiple negative conditions of declining upstream costs and no improvement in downstream demand, aluminum prices are weak in the short term. However, considering that the alumina price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, the aluminum price is expected to bottom

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