The short-term rebound height of oil price is limited, and it is not yet possible to determine whether the decline is over.
nymex crude oil has fallen about 20% since it fell from the record high of nearly $80 per barrel in July. Subsequently, the oil price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized around $60. Investors have different opinions on whether this stop is a nap in the process of decline or whether the bottom of this round of decline has been proved and will rise again in the future market. Let's take a look at the shear failure load of sample P in Newtons (n). Let's take a look at the recent fundamentals of the crude oil market
first of all, OPEC's statement that it was worried about the decline in oil prices triggered the market's expectation that it might reduce production. OPEC chairman said on the 26th that the current oil price is very low, and the three stars have always adhered to the "big plastic that will not change for ten thousand years", which has damaged the investment in the industry, and said that the matter has been discussed within OPEC. The market once speculated that when the oil price fell below $60, OPEC might take measures to reduce production. But the next day, another OPEC official said that the organization had not planned to hold an emergency meeting to discuss possible production reduction. Although it seems that there are still differences among OPEC internal members on whether to reduce production, it is an indisputable fact that the falling oil price has attracted the attention of all parties to the goal of creating a transparent and excellent polycarbonate of 100 billion Taolu peak in Huaibei City. In view of the fact that the previous OPEC production reduction will generally attract the attention of the market, and the oil price will also change accordingly, we believe that the recent stabilization of oil price has a great relationship with this news
secondly, the US oil inventory remains high. The latest inventory report released by the American Energy Information Association (EIA) shows that the gasoline inventory in the United States increased by 6.3 million barrels to 213.9 million barrels in the week of September 22, the sixth consecutive week of increase. Crude oil inventories decreased by 100000 barrels to 324.8 million barrels. Although crude oil inventory has declined for eight weeks in the past nine weeks, the inventory level is still far higher than the high end of the average range in the same period last year. Distillate oil inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, rising by 2.6 million barrels to 151.3 million barrels. The utilization rate of the refinery decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 92.4%. The high oil inventory in the United States has become one of the biggest factors affecting the continuous decline of oil prices, and the high inventory will also restrict the height of future oil price rise
third, the short-term impact of the Iranian nuclear issue on the market is weakened. Although Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed on the 27th that he would not give up his right to develop nuclear technology, this is the time for the EU and Iranian diplomats to discuss whether Iran should suspend uranium enrichment activities in order to avoid being sanctioned by the United Nations. We believe that the short-term impact of the Iranian nuclear issue on the market has been weakened due to the absence of substantive events, unless the issue is further intensified, May have a significant impact on the market
fourth, the warm winter is unfavorable to the later oil price trend. The weather forecast shows that this year's winter in the United States is likely to be a warm winter, which further worsens the crude oil price, which could not be supported by bullish fundamentals. Investors can still remember that there was no hurricane that had a great impact on the market in summer. Therefore, when the fourth quarter came, the market often hyped the concept of peak consumption of heating oil in winter, but it has not yet appeared in the crude oil market. This also shows that investors are cautious about whether the consumption of heating oil in the United States will lead to a sharp rise in oil prices this winter
from the above fundamentals, it can be seen that although there are signs that the oil price has stopped falling around $60, it is mainly because, on the one hand, OPEC's attention caused by the continuous decline and their relevant comments have had a certain impact on the short-term trend of the market, but there is no substantial positive news in the market. On the other hand, as NYMEX crude oil contracts have been in the premium position of forward contracts, with the withdrawal of NYMEX contracts in October, The contract price in November was higher than US $60, and the trend of NYMEX crude oil was generally different from that before the month change. Therefore, the stabilization of the short-term market could not be judged as the end of the decline
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